THE NORMALCY BIAS: Part I
WHY HISTORY IS DOOMED TO REPEAT ITSELF
The philosophical concept of history repeating itself has been around for centuries. The British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously said, “Those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it.” However, it was the 19th-century Spanish/American philosopher George Santayana who first proposed the idea that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
At the individual level, learning from our failures is our path to success. In the aexaminedlife article, THE FRUIT OF FAILURE, I proposed the idea that “life lessons are learned in failure. Success is affirmation, but progress is only found in failure.” The lessons learned from failure prepare us for future success. The same holds true for societies and governments, maybe more so.
Even a cursory study of World History will show that empire after empire and civilization after civilization rise to the pinnacle of power and prestige, only to end up a footnote in some history books.
Once great and prominent societies such as Easter Island, the Maya Empire, the Ancient Greek Empire, the Roman Empire, and (as we will see in Part II of this article) the Babylonia Empire (along with countless others) all collapsed. How could these “superpowers” of their times come to such ruin, time and time again? I propose that the main culprit is a psychological phenomenon known as Normalcy Bias.
The Ever Progressive Regression
When governments and societies take small incremental overreach into their citizen’s civil liberties, it produces dramatic and devastating outcomes. That is exactly what is happening in America over the last three decades. Whether it is North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, 1970’s Brazil, or India, Vietnam and China, these are all societies characterized by government overreach, infringement of their citizens’ civil liberties, corruption, tribal infighting, an unstable economic system, and the erosion of moral character and cultural values. A prime example of this phenomenon is Germany in the 1920s and 30s.
Early 20th century Germany saw a fringe of radically progressive elites, along with a minority of social outcasts, begin their assault on the values and norms of their society in pursuit of a hedonistic idea. This assault on Germany’s mores set the stage for the rise of Adolf Hitler, the Nazis’ and WW II.
A very similar scenario is being repeated today in America. Government overreach, executive orders, weaponizing of government agencies, and the assault on social/cultural norms will bring us closer to similar catastrophic results. To prevent history from repeating itself, we must understand our history and take action to ensure that America does not become another “once-great” society in the margins of an academic book.
Understanding is the Beginning of Wisdom
In this article, we will explore the concept of normalcy bias, how it hastened the ruin of once-great Nations, how this phenomenon lends itself to the cyclic nature of history, and examples of this psychological phenomenon in 21st-century America. The Normalcy Bias Part I, examines history’s (seemingly) inevitable cyclic nature and how we can stop the merry-go-round of catastrophic failure.
9/11, Afghanistan, and COVID 19
The normalcy bias is a well-known psychological phenomenon that refers to the cognitive bias that all people have. This bias occurs when individuals underestimate the possibility and scope of a disaster/emergency. When in these disasters, people tend to believe their environment (and themselves) will respond as they routinely have.
Our normalcy bias acts like a cognitive blind spot. It is the unfounded belief that normalcy will be restored even in the face of evidence to the contrary. This bias can lead to an inability to deal effectively with a crisis/disaster/emergency when it occurs. Normalcy bias can also prevent people from adequately planning and preparing for such an emergency. The normalcy bias on a larger scale will negatively influence governments to identify, anticipate, and/or plan for threats (external and internal), even in the face of clear warning signs. When left unchecked, this bias will lead to complacency, hinder response times, and result in inadequate preparations. We all know of disasters such as floods, earthquakes, acts of terrorism, active shooter events, or even personal and family crises, such as personal betrayal, loss of job, or critical illnesses, where this has been the case.
Normalcy Bias = Evolutionary Hack
This normalcy bias is an evolutionary “hack” that most of the animal kingdom has developed to quickly and efficiently identify threats and dangers. Due to the development of our frontal cortex (which all mammalian species have), we possess the incredible ability not only to identify threats/dangers, but to identify such a vast quantity of dangers that it would be overwhelming and debilitating if not for our unconscious ability to simultaneous rank these threats according to importance and familiarity.
Perhaps this is why the human eye can identify more hues of green than any other color (over 300 shades). As humans evolved and migrated from the planes of Africa to the forest of Europe, through the vast wilderness of modern-day Russia, Alaska, Canada, North America to the jungles of Central and South America, our ability to spot danger (other mammals) amongst the vast array of vegetation, aided in the survival of our species. By hacking our senses and prioritizing perceived threats according to their likelihood (what is familiar), our normalcy bias helps to deal with another psychological phenomenon we know all too well, our “fight-or-flight” reaction to threats/dangers. The absolute risk of this normalcy bias is best exemplified in the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America’s surrender of Afghanistan, and our response to the pandemic of COVID 19.
9/11
There were arguably more warning signs of the coming terrorist acts on 9/11 than the bombing of Pearl Harbor in WW II (yes, P.H. was bombed before the USA entered WW II). Yet, we still failed to anticipate, prepare, and respond to the rise of the Islamic Jihadists in the 20th century. It can be argued that the West’s normalcy bias -more aptly- the lack of awareness of our bias hindered our government’s preparation for and attempts to prevent such attacks on our homeland.
America’s normalcy bias is a product of only understanding our enemies through the traditional lens. It was reasoned that there had never been an attack of that magnitude on America. Our intelligence agencies never thought that some “rag-tag, cave-dwelling, religious zealots” could pull off such a coordinated and sophisticated operation from within the USA, even though there was more than enough proof to think otherwise.
Pre-9/11 Evidence of Upcoming Terrorist Attacks
1993- World Trade Center bombing – 6 deaths, thousands injured, and millions of dollars of damage.
1998- Simultaneous U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya – 224 deaths, thousands more injured, embassy destroyed.
2000- U.S. Cole Navy vessel, suicide bombing – 17 U.S. Sailors dead, dozens more permanently injured, U.S. Cole damaged and docked for repairs for more than a year.
9/11 Day of attacks:
08:24 am -On flight 11, Boston to L.A. One of the terrorists aboard the plane attempts to calm the passengers by announcing. “Nobody moves, everything will be okay. If you try to make any moves, you will endanger yourself and the airplane. Just stay quiet.”
08:46 am -After Flight 11 crashed into the North Tower, many initial reports were of a small “fixed-winged” aircraft colliding with the building. There are documented reports that shortly after the plane hit the North Tower, many people who could have gotten out to safety stayed at their desks awaiting instructions. Some of those in the tower were in the process of evacuation and went back up to their offices to turn their computer off, get personal items, and make phone calls
09:03 – Even after the second plane, flight 175, crashed into the South Tower, there are reports of some victims calling 911, only to be told to shelter in place and wait for first responders to get to them.
As a result of this terrorist act, Americans saw the most extensive government overreach and governmental expansion since WW II. By forsaking our liberty and many freedoms for (supposed) security, we embraced the Patriot Act of 2021 in the hope of “getting back” to normal life = normalcy bias. This Act massively expanded the government’s surveillance of its citizens. The NSA uses this Act (still active today) to collect massive amounts of data (phone records/ financial records/ internet activity/ social media) without a warrant. This directly violates the Fourth Amendment (search and seizure). The last four administrations have used the Patriot Act to weaponize Federal Agencies against their citizens, who they claimed were, “ a threat to democracy”, ( Bush 20001-2009, Obama 2009- 2017, Trump 2017-2021, Biden 2021-present).
2021 Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) withdrawal debacle.
1. Intelligence failures:
Reports of the Afghan Military’s size, capabilities, and constitution were vastly oversold (by everyone but the War-fighter on the ground).
2. Failure to properly plan withdrawal:
The failure of the Administration and the Strategic Military Leadership to grasp the complexity and inherent danger of any Withdraw Mission. Both entities are so far removed from the “war-fighters reality” that they could not (and it would seem – did not) plan for “the worst case” scenario (*something every Warrior learns to do in basic training).
3. Leave No one behind:
The failure to evacuate American civilians and Afghan Allies effectively, more than 200 Americans and an untold number of Allies to be left behind for dead (*Secretary of State testifies that there are reports of the Taliban beating and threatening American civilians).
4. 7 Billion (tax-payers) dollars worth of equipment given to terrorists
$7,000,000,000 worth of Military weapons and equipment was left behind, essentially equipping the Taliban and ISIS terrorists with a level of weaponry they could have never hoped for. To think that the weapons used by American Warriors to kill terrorists and stop the tyranny they inflicted on the Afghan people are now used to kill the innocent more effectively leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
In April of 1975, Senator Joe Biden went to the White House to receive a briefing on the Vietnam War. As a Senator, he witnessed firsthand the fall of Saigon and the picture of Vietnam allies clutching to the skid of a U.S. helicopter as it flew off. After deciding to abandon Afghanistan, President Biden spoke to Richard Holbrooke (former Special Envoy to Afghanistan) where he flippantly said, “We don’t have to worry about that, we did it in Vietnam. Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.” When asked about the safety of the women of Afghanistan, he indifferently chirped, “I’m not sending my boy back over there for women’s rights.” (compassionate Joe). Again, the elites are betting you will comply (nothing to see here) and allow things to go on as normal – the new normal.
The U.S. Government’s Response to the COVID 19 Pandemic.
1. Government’s Response to the COVID 19 Pandemic
Not allowing citizens hospital visits, denying the opportunity to say good-bye to dying parents, spouses, or loved ones/ to not be with your partner when she gave birth, banning religious gatherings, family gatherings, or attending funerals held outside (unless, of course, you were a political elite – Antifa – or rioter). The lockdown of private/small businesses, the lockdown of most service-related businesses, and locking students out of sports, homecomings, proms, and graduations.
These are all basic human rights violations, not to mention they are unconstitutional. (*a healthy teen or 20-something, no graduation ceremony for you, but you could attend a riot if you wanted to).
2. Mandatory school closings.
As if our education system is not broken enough (spoken by the husband of a retired teacher), the catastrophic harm done to a generation of students is only now beginning to be recognized. There is significant evidence of the motor and cognitive decline of the children they locked out of school. Equally disturbing is the dramatic rise in mental health issues in school children who did (and those who did not) return to school.
3. Government’s mandate of destruction:
Our administration’s mandate of cloth masks, social distancing, mandatory vaccines, and the President’s denigration of an entire section of Citizens who were uncompliant. “…COVID is a pandemic of the unvaxed”, Joe Biden.
After more than two years of pushing the envelope of intrusions into our civil liberties, it has led us to the California Bills AB-957 and SB-107 are the radical progressives’ assault on the American family. It states that school teachers do not have to notify the parents of a child who has been persuaded to begin hormone infusing and/or genital mutualization. Just as the title of the Clinton book crassly states, It Takes a Village, these people actually believe that your, my, everyone’s children belong to the state (“Nazi Youth much… Hillary”). It doesn’t take a village to raise a child properly. It takes a family.
How Did We Get Here?
“Freedom is lost gradually from an uninterested, uninformed, and uninvolved people.”
Thomas Jefferson
If you are like many of your fellow countrymen, you have wondered in embarrassment, “How did we get here?” “How could this be happening?” I have often felt as if we are in that North Tower as it burns and fills with smoke. As the building is about to collapse and kill everything inside, we are going back up the stairs to turn the lights off.
We are all breathing the politicians’ fiery smoke of disparagement towards our neighbors. As we choke on tribalism’s blistering heat and flames, we pretend that “this is normal,” or more precisely, we accept this as the “new” normal. Like many German Jews of the early 20th century, we say, “Surely it can’t get worse than this. Surely, someone will return us to the normalcy/decency we are used to. There is no need to overreact about the coming consequences of our compliance. They can’t be worse than the Nazis.”
Blind Faith
How did we get here? Why did we relinquish our constitutional rights and freedoms? Why did we put our trust and faith in bureaucrats and politicians who always put their interests and advancement before the citizenry’s safety? The answer is our individual and collective normalcy bias. It is a human desire to maintain homeostasis for themselves and their environment, the “herd mentality” that encourages us to blend in, go along with the herd, keep our heads down, and keep our objections to ourselves. In our desire for security and to get our lives back to normal (= the new normal), we have allowed the slow steady governmental erosion of our civil liberties, and the denial of our individual agency.
We are/have allowed the intrusion of our inalienable rights with promises of: finding WMDs in Iraq = Bush, you can keep your doctor if you want to = Obama, draining the “swamp” = Trump, the retreat from Afghanistan was an extraordinary success=Biden. The only excuse for our willingness to ignore such egregious manipulation is normalcy bias (it wouldn’t be normal if our elected officials continually lie to us).
A Call to Action
How do we stem the tide of this governmental intrusion? In order to create “a more perfect Union.” We must throw off the slumber we have been immersed in by social/ mainstream media, the social (in)-justice warriors, and political opportunists. Like the Siren’s songs of sailor tails, the nefarious urging of these radical progressives will slowly but surely lead America to ruin. Do not drink these miscreant’s kool-aid!
Also, we must work to become better consumers of information, not only by engaging with differing ideas and information, but actually breaking out of our echo chamber and spending time in an attempt to understand opposing views.
Finally, we must be more empathetic to our fellow countrymen and neighbors (especially those with differing perspectives and ideas). Jefferson said, “Freedom is lost gradually from an uninterested, uninformed, and uninvolved people.”
In our Next article The Normalcy Bias Part II, we will look at the once great societies and how they lost their way by blindly embracing the radical progressives of their time. We will show the parallels of fallen empires and what lessons we must learn from them.
Living Life Fearlessly
Your Brother in Arms (YBiA)
Vincent